Jobs Outlook and Implications on the Labour Market

Key Takeaways

• Technology disruption, green transition, declining consumer spending, and slow growths are influencing job creation and losses across the globe;
• Demand for tech-related (AI and machine learning, big data, business intelligence, and others) and sustainability-focused jobs are projected to grow;
• Advertising and public relations professionals, vocational education teachers, and heavy truck and bus drivers are among the leading non-tech nor green-related jobs with increasing demand;
• Postal service, data entry and ticket office clerks and cashiers are to decline per employers’ demand rapidly;
• Upskilling and reskilling opportunities for Lagos residents abound with the Lagos State Employment Trust Fund.

Macrotrends, driven by technological advancements, green movement, broadening digital access, shrinking purchasing power of consumers and slow economic growth, are the critical determinants of job creation and destruction across diverse industries and regions of the world for the next five years according to the World Economic Forum’s Future of Jobs Report 2023. The Report adopts structural labour market churn as the measurement of job creation and displacement. Labour-market churn entails the pace at which workers and jobs are reallocated.

Employers anticipate that 152 million jobs will be affected by the churn, with not less than eighty-three (83) million jobs estimated to be lost. At the same time, sixty-nine (69) million are projected to be created. This constitutes an estimated net employment loss of fourteen (14) million.

Labour Market Churn – Industry Analysis

Labour market churn rate varies across industries. As noted in the Report, the five-year churn is projected to be highest in media, entertainment and sports (32%). In comparison, Government and public sector and information technology and digital communications record 29% apiece, as real estate (27%) and financial services (26%) industries make up the top five.

On the flip side, the industries expected to experience the least churn are accommodation, food & leisure (16%), followed by automotive and aerospace (19%), manufacturing (19%), energy and materials (19%), with retail and wholesale of consumer goods (21%) making up the bottom five.

Labour Market Churn – Occupation Analysis

AI & machine learning specialists, sustainability professionals, business intelligence, and data & information security analysts are expected to be among the highest in-demand roles, with FinTech and robotic engineers as well as data analysts and scientists making the top seven – all averaging not less than 30% growth projection. Meanwhile, specialists in big data, digital transformation, e-commerce and digital marketing are to maintain their growing demands from businesses.

Among the most-sought non-technological nor green jobs are advertising and public relations professionals, heavy truck and bus drivers, vocational education teachers and repairers – mechanics and machinery, reaching about two million new jobs in the next five years.

As advanced technology and green transition are fuelling changes in job growth, some traditional roles are expected to experience a consistent decline due to technology disruptions. For instance, the growing rate of online banking and smartphone penetration has hastened the reduction of physical bank branches, leaving bank teller and related clerk jobs to suffer an anticipated staggering decline of 40% by 2027.

In the same vein, postal service clerks, cashier and ticket office clerks, and data entry roles are being undone by the rapidly growing influence of automation, online services, and sensor technologies. The highest job losses are expected for data clerks, administrative and executive secretaries, as well as bookkeeping roles – to account for more than half of the total job losses.

Implications for Jobseekers and the Employed

• Jobseekers should align their learning and skill acquisition with areas of increasing demand, such as AI and machine learning, business intelligence, data analysis, and digital marketing, to improve their employability prospects.
• Tertiary institution applicants should target courses aligned with market demand for talents to enhance their post-graduation employability.
• Employed individuals in roles prone to job displacement should embrace upskilling and reskilling to transition into high-demand positions.

Implications for Training Institutions

• Learning institutions should integrate digital and green skills-related courses into their curriculum to boost the employability of their trainees.
• Attention should be given to local needs, as the importance of digital skills does not imply a lack of demand for non-technological roles.

Implications for Business

• Businesses adopting digital operations should invest in comprehensive learning and development plans to train and retrain their staff.
• The increasing demand for tech-related talents necessitates traditional businesses to reconsider their operations and leverage technology to cut costs, raise productivity, and improve profitability.

Concluding Thoughts

The business environment is consistently evolving due to divergent macro trends, and this requires different stakeholders in the labour market to act accordingly to ensure that talents are available for businesses to leverage. The Lagos State Employment Trust Fund has consistently provided upskilling and reskilling opportunities for Lagos residents through its employability and talent development programmes. For more information and to explore a plethora of upskilling and reskilling opportunities, please visit our website and follow us on social media (Facebook, Instagram, Twitter and YouTube).